Publisher's Synopsis
The book delves into two basic problems concerning the effects of involvement in the world trade liberalization on poverty in Sudan. The first problem is how to select the suitable indicator to measure poverty in Sudan, especially as the previous ones were said to be invalid and they need statistical methods to amend the lost values. The second one has something to do with the nature of the data used for measuring poverty in Sudan, which severely suffer from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskdasitcity (ACH) phenomenon. That simply means unstable periods. Data were collected about poverty based on the estimation of the World Bank development index in Sudan. Sudan imports materials were use by COMESA to imply the trade liberalizing indicators. Auto Regressive and moving Average (ARI) to show the missed data of the period of human development index. Then (GRACH) model was used to measure the relation ship between trade liberalization and poverty in Sudan. The basic idea relies on the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, which is the first time to model poverty and trade in the Sudan. The model has a great ability in dealing with data which shows sharp fluctuations in some periods and stability in other periods. The Study includes extensive literature review, results and recommendations.
