Publisher's Synopsis
This paper summarises updated projections of future expenditure on long-term care services for older people in Britain to 2051. Drawing on the latest population estimates and projections, the authors examine projected long-term care expenditure under a set of central base case assumptions about future trends in life expectancy, dependency rates and real unit costs. They also consider the potential effect on projected expenditure of possible changes in patterns of care and changes in the funding system and the implications for the balance between public and private expenditure, and the distributional impact, of making personal care free to users. The analysis shows that, even under current patterns of care and funding arrangements, there is much uncertainty about whether and how far the proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) devoted to long-term care will need to rise over the next decades to meet demographic pressures and rises in the real unit costs of care. These findings suggest that policy-makers need to plan for uncertainty in future demand for long-term care when considering the system for its funding.
