Publisher's Synopsis
Excerpt from Technological Progress and the Duration of Contribution Spans: December 1991
Predicting the rate of technological progress within a given field is an enduring problem for those individuals who are responsible for the allocation of scarce resources. Ideally, if managers and government policy-makers had at their disposal an array of indicators to enable them to predict the rate of technological progress in a field, optimal resource allocation would be assured. Indeed, the ability of managers and policymakers to comprehend the pace and the direction of technological advancement will largely determine their firm's or nation's competitive performance in world markets into the next century. This is no small task. Historical accounts of indusrrial evolution, such as with the development of semiconductors, videocassette recorders, and personal computers, show the immense difficulties some firms encounter when confronted by new technologies [1, 2.
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