Publisher's Synopsis
Unidentified "Little Green Men" spearheaded a move in 2014 which led to an eventual Russian annexation of the Crimea. Large-scale buildups of Russia forces occurred on the Ukrainian border between 2014 and 2016, while Russian rocket artillery and air defense elements fired across the border into the Donbas. Russia deployed an expeditionary force to Syria at the request of President Bashar al-Assad, ostensibly to fight ISIS, but in reality helping Damascus reclaim lost territory. Russian-sponsored and alleged influence, and cyber-operations that sowed dissent, spun false narratives, targeted critical infrastructure and challenged Western foreign policy and cohesion occur in the United States and Europe. Ukrainian naval vessels were seized in the Kerch Strait in November, 2018. These, and other Russian actions occurring within the Competitive Zone, or "Gray Zone," profoundly impact and continue to threaten vital aspects of US national interest and security. Finding a way to understand the overarching campaign plan behind Russian actions will enable the United States to more effectively counter Moscow. The misinterpretation of a competitor's intentions can lead to errors of judgement that result in undesired effects. As emerging crises and issues are examined from within the context of a US, or Western worldview, it becomes easier to miss key points or misconstrue actions. The extent to which US planners and policymakers are empowered to quickly and accurately identify the intent behind Russian actions is the critical factor for enabling the US to respond effectively to threats or proactively mitigate the intent of Russian actions, while protecting US interests and minimizing the risk of escalation. This white paper is intended to inform the operational and planning communities. It is the result of input from, and discussion with, a diverse group of current and former senior officials, military officers, academics and top experts from both the US and the UK. By soliciting input from practitioners and experts across multiple agencies and academic and operational disciplines, the US will put itself in the best position to better understand the complex nature of the operational environment, and consequently, the best ways to achieve US objectives. The goals of this effort are to identify the threads that connect Russian activities across geography, domain, and type, and then to suggest capabilities that the United States requires to effectively respond to Russian actions in the Gray Zone. Taken together, these expert submissions provide an assessment of Russian Federation activities in the Gray Zone over the last 3-5 years, as well as an initial exploration of the strategic intent that they appear to represent. Specifically, these contributions explore the implications of Russian competitive actions and strategies on US global objectives and national interests. They examine Russian motivations, interests, and perspectives to inform possible US responses that could shape desirable potential outcomes. Finally, where appropriate, this white paper offers suggestions and considerations for senior policy makers. The paper is organized into six sections, generally representing various geographical regions: Europe, Central Asia and China, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Arctic.
