Publisher's Synopsis
Until recently a formidable gap separated practical business economists, who forecast economic growth and exchange and interest rate fluctuations, from academic researchers. Academic journals focused on statistical techniques which were inappropriate for practical business forecasting. Economic theory, especially in the field of business cycle research, became more and more abstract and harder to apply. These twin developments drove many practitioners to technical analysis. Fortunately, the gap is being bridged. New scholarly research offers more scope for useful forecasts of exchange rates and stock market indices. Advances in statistics, especially the estimation of Kalman filters, allow for better treatment of non-stationary variables.
In a clear and readable manner, Financial Forecasting for Business and Economics summarizes the important new thinking on financial market forecasting and the statistical modeling of non-stationary series. The first four chapters deal with forecasting economic and financial indicators. Separate chapters further discuss forecasting economic growth, stock market indices, exchange rates, and the relationship between short and long term interest rates. Throughout the book, real-life examples are offered with data from a variety of countries and sources.
Additionally, the author provides a supplemental IBM disk, available through a tear-out card, which amplifies key examples in the book.
