Publisher's Synopsis
Excerpt from Annual Report of the Secretary of the Treasury on the State of the Finances: For the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 1976, and Transition Quarter
A crucial element in the current economic outlook is an expected acceleration of capital investment. Spending for capital equipment bottomed out early in fiscal 1976 and modest improvement had been registered by the end of the transition quarter with larger increases expected in 1977. Improving corporate profits, the prospect of emerging capacity constraints in some industries, and the overall improvement in business demand are basic reasons for expecting increased capital Spending.
Business spending for inventories swung from massive liquidation during the last half of fiscal 1975 to accumulation during the 15-month period under review. This contributed to very rapid growth in gnp. By the close of the transition quarter, the rate of increase in inventory was leveling off and apparently contained a certain amount of involuntary accumula tion. However, the bulk of inventory investment was still voluntary and appeared to be justified by the fundamentals of the economic situation. Nonetheless, sluggishness in retail sales was beginning to cause some concern by the end of the transition quarter and inventory-sales ratios, while low by historical standards, were rising.
The other major investment sector - housing - has been slow to regain satisfactory levels of operation although a cyclical recovery is now apparently underway. Total private housing starts were averaging about a 1 million-unit annual rate in the early months of fiscal 1976 and moved up to about a 1 million rate by the fiscal yearend. A sharp monthly increase to a million rate occurred at the close ofthe transition quarter, but the significance of such monthly changes is difficult to judge.
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