Publisher's Synopsis
Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Organisation and administration - Public safety and order, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, language: English, abstract: Delve into the intricate world of urban crime with a groundbreaking exploration that dares to ask: can we truly predict violence? This compelling study tackles the pervasive issue of violent crime by developing and testing a sophisticated mathematical model designed to forecast crime rates based on the interplay between property crime and policing enforcement. Moving beyond conventional wisdom, the research rigorously examines the validity of the Broken Windows Theory in a global context, providing fresh insights into the factors that contribute to urban insecurity. Through meticulous data analysis and the application of statistical techniques such as multiple regression analysis and Spearman rank correlation, the study unveils the complex dynamics that drive crime in diverse urban environments. A detailed case study of São Paulo, Brazil, utilizing monthly crime data from 2011 to 2014, serves as a cornerstone for validating the model's predictive power. Expanding the scope, the investigation extends to nine of the world's most violent cities, comparing crime patterns and assessing the model's robustness across varying socioeconomic and cultural landscapes. This research offers a critical examination of policing strategies, exploring the elasticity of crime and the effectiveness of different enforcement approaches. By synthesizing existing literature and introducing innovative analytical methods, this study provides valuable tools for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and researchers seeking to understand and combat violent crime in an increasingly complex world. Discover how mathematical modeling can illuminate the hidden connections between seemingly disparate crimes, offering a data-driven path toward safer and more secure communities. Explore the far-reaching implications of global
